Midterm Election Results - The Presidents Party Loses

Midterm Election Results - The President's Party Loses Midterm elections are not friendly to the presidents political party. Modern midterm elections have resulted in an average loss of 30 seats in the House of Representatives  and Senate by the political party whose president occupies the White House. Midterms,  held in even years in the second year of a presidents four-year term, are typically thought of as a barometer of the majority partys popularity among the electorate. And with few exceptions, theyre pretty ugly. There are  competing theories for why the presidents party suffers in midterm elections. One is the belief that a president who is elected in a landslide, or because of a coattails effect, will suffer deep losses in the midterms.  The coattail effect   is a reference to the effect  a very popular candidate president has on voters and candidates for office who are also on the ballot in presidential election years. Candidates of a popular presidential candidates party are swept into office on their coattails. But what happens two years later in the midterm elections? Apathy. The stronger the presidential victory margin or the more seats won in the presidential year and therefore at risk, the greater will be the subsequent midterm seat loss, explains the University of Houstons  Robert S. Erikson, writing in the Journal of Politics. Another reason: the so-called presidential penalty, or the tendency of more voters to go the polls only when they are angry. If more angry voters vote than do satisfied voters, the presidents party loses.  In the United States, voters typically express dissatisfaction with the presidents party and remove some of his senators and members of the House of Representatives. Midterm elections provide a check on the presidents power and give power to the electorate. Worst Midterm Election Losses Midterm elections are held two years after a presidential election; one-third of the Senate and all 435 seats in the House of Representatives are at stake. Conventional wisdom holds that the Presidents party will lose seats during a midterm election. In the 21 midterm elections held since 1934, only twice has the presidents party gained seats in both the Senate and the House: Franklin Delano Roosevelts first midterm election and George W. Bushs first midterm election. On three other occasions, the presidents party gained House seats and once it was a draw. On one occasion, the presidents party gained Senate seats. The worst midterm losses tend to occur in a presidents first term. Modern midterm election results include: In 2010, Democrats lost 69 seats, 63 in the House and six in the Senate, while Democratic President Barack Obama was in the White House. Obama, who signed an overhaul of the nations health care system that was deeply unpopular among Tea Party Republicans, later described the midterm results as a shellacking.In 2006, Republicans lost 36 seats, 30 in the House and six in the Senate, while Republican President George W. Bush was in office. Voters had grown weary of the war in Iraq and took it out on Bush, one of only three presidents whose party has picked up seats in midterms since World War II. Bush called the 2006 midterms a thumpin.in 1994, Democrats lost 60 seats, 52 in the House and eight in the Senate, while Democrat Bill Clinton was in office and the opposing party, led by conservative firebrand Newt Gingrich, orchestrated a successful Republican Revolution in Congress with its Contract With America.In 1974, Republicans lost 63 seats, 48 in the House and five in the Senate, whil e Republican President Gerald Ford was in office. The election was held just months after President Richard M. Nixon resigned from the White House in disgrace amid the Watergate scandal.   Exceptions to the Rule There have been three midterms in which the presidents party actually picked up seats since the 1930s. They are: The 2002 midterms, in which the Republicans picked up 10 seats, eight in the House and two in the Senate, while Bush was in the White House. The election was held a year after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, and the Republican presidents popularity surged amid the strong patriotic sentiment in the electorate.In 1998, the Democrats picked up five seats, all in the House, in Clintons second term - even as he faced impeachment hearings sought by Republicans amid the Monica Lewinsky scandal.  And in 1934, the Democrats picked up 18 seats, nine each in the House and Senate, while Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt was in office and putting in place the New Deal to ease the impact of the  The Great Depression.  Ã‚   Midterm Election Results   This chart shows the number of seats in the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate that the presidents party won or lost during midterm elections dating back to Franklin D. Roosevelt.   Year President Party House Senate Total 1934 Franklin D. Roosevelt D +9 +9 +18 1938 Franklin D. Roosevelt D -71 -6 -77 1942 Franklin D. Roosevelt D -55 -9 -64 1946 Harry S. Truman D -45 -12 -57 1950 Harry S. Truman D -29 -6 -35 1954 Dwight D. Eisenhower R -18 -1 -19 1958 Dwight D. Eisenhower R -48 -13 -61 1962 John F. Kennedy D -4 +3 -1 1966 Lyndon B. Johnson D -47 -4 -51 1970 Richard Nixon R -12 +2 -10 1974 Gerald R. Ford R -48 -5 -63 1978 Jimmy Carter D -15 -3 -18 1982 Ronald Reagan R -26 +1 -25 1986 Ronald Reagan R -5 -8 -13 1990 George Bush R -8 -1 -9 1994 William J. Clinton D -52 -8 -60 1998 William J. Clinton D +5 0 +5 2002 George W. Bush R +8 +2 +10 2006 George W. Bush R -30 -6 -36 2010 Barack Obama D -63 -6 -69 2014 Barack Obama D -13 -9 -21 [Updated  by Tom Murse in August 2018.]